The Trump presidency may introduce changes to US foreign policy that will directly or indirectly affect the South Caucasus—and Armenia in particular. However, the United States’ national interests in the South Caucasus are expected to remain consistent in the long run. New risks as well as opportunities for engagement may emerge for Armenia under the Trump administration. 

The US has significant objectives when it comes to the South Caucasus, although it is not considered a region of vital national interests according to US foreign policy documents. US interests include promoting democracy, facilitating the resolution of the Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict, the opening of the Armenia–Turkey border and the establishment of regional communications, as well as curbing the influence of Russia and Iran in the region. The significance of the South Caucasus has grown in recent years amid intensifying US–Russia rivalry, Russia’s waning dominance over the region, and the growing geopolitical importance of transit routes that traverse the region. 

The Ukraine War and US–Russia Relations 

The War in Ukraine and intensifying rivalry between the United States and Russia have already greatly impacted the South Caucasus by increasing regional tensions, with negative implications for Armenia. The outcome of the Ukraine War will be the most significant external factor affecting South Caucasus geopolitics. If Donald Trump acts upon his promise to reduce US military aid to Ukraine, this will eventually bolster Russian positions, whether or not a formal agreement is reached between the sides. This may also ultimately result in Russia increasing its presence in the South Caucasus. 

In a less likely event of the US and Russia agreeing to a comprehensive package that normalizes bilateral relations, American involvement in the South Caucasus will probably be reduced. Conversely, an escalation in Ukraine, increased US–Russia confrontation, and a weakening of Russia’s positions might lead to greater US involvement in the region.

For Armenia, these shifting dynamics demand a balancing act between maintaining at least the current level of dialogue with the US and avoiding straining relations with Russia.

US Stance on Iran

Instability or any major conflict involving Iran would pose security risks for Armenia. Iran has been one of the supporters of Armenia’s territorial integrity and has opposed the use of force to change borders. Iran’s isolation could also disrupt arms shipments from India, Armenia’s largest weapons supplier. 

During his first term, Donald Trump pursued a “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran, which may continue during his second term, including a new wave of economic sanctions. Trump’s strong support for Israel and the hardline stance of his key administration appointees may also increase the importance of Azerbaijan, a strategic ally of Israel. 

However, Trump has also stated that he does not seek a regime change or a war, instead intending “to make a deal” with Tehran. Iran has also signaled an interest in engaging in dialogue with the United States. This would be more favorable for regional stability and Armenia, which could consider positioning itself as a platform for informal, track-two diplomacy.

Armenia–Azerbaijan Negotiations

US engagement in facilitating Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations reached its peak during the Biden administration. However, these efforts have not resulted in a peace agreement, largely due to Azerbaijan’s incessant demands, which show no signs of abating. 

Future US involvement in facilitating Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations will hinge on the broader dynamics of US–Russia relations, on how close the parties are to signing a peace agreement, and whether the US President-elect will see it as a personal opportunity to strike a deal. 

One factor that could indirectly impact regional dynamics is global oil prices. If Trump’s policies result in a lowering of oil prices, this will diminish Azerbaijan’s capacity to purchase arms—an important consideration for regional security. 

US–Armenia Relations 

Under the Biden administration Armenia–US relations have been upgraded to a Strategic Partnership Commission, expanding the areas of cooperation. Under Trump, the existing commitments are likely to persist, but overall investment in democracy promotion is likely to decrease.  

At the same time Armenia should be mindful of the limitations of US involvement when it comes to its security. The US can help upgrade the Armenian army through training and capacity-building, and can also potentially exert diplomatic pressure on Azerbaijan. But Washington has not publicly pledged—and according to American experts is unlikely to pledge—security guarantees to Armenia, irrespective of who is in the White House.

Trump’s criticism of Vice President Harris for her inaction during “persecution and forced displacement of 120,000 Armenian Christians in Artsakh” and his promise to “protect persecuted Christians”—views shared by several of his nominees—create space to raise issues critical for Armenia. In this framework Armenia should highlight its national identity and history as a Christian nation while raising its outstanding security issues. Armenia can also leverage its friendly relations with India in fostering its ties with the new administration. 

In these changing and uncertain circumstances, the best path forward for Armenia is to work toward a settlement that will not jeopardize its security in the long term, and enhance its deterrence strategy, by focusing on strengthening its army and bolstering its self-defense capabilities while developing stronger ties with security partners. 

Author: Nvard Chalikyan, Research Fellow, APRI Armenia

Published by Armenpress, original at https://armenpress.am/en/article/1206885