Florence Bauer, UNFPA Regional Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, has presented a brief report on global and Armenian population trends in the context of World Population Day.

According to a press release from the Public Relations Department of the UNFPA Armenia Office, the theme of World Population Day 2025 is “Empowering young people to create the families they want in a just and hopeful world.”

A new report from UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund, sheds light on the factors preventing people from having the families they desire. As part of the report, 14,000 people across 14 countries were surveyed to better understand the challenges they face.

“The biggest hurdle is economic. More than half of respondents (54%) said their financial situation, lack of affordable housing, job insecurity, or the high cost of childcare has played,or could play a role in not having the number of children they want.”

World Population Trends

It took hundreds of thousands of years for the world population to reach 1 billion, but in just the past 200 years, it has increased sevenfold. It is projected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 10.9 billion by 2100, before beginning to decline.

According to the report, there have been major shifts in fertility rates and life expectancy in recent decades. In the early 1970s, women had an average of 4.5 children. By 2015, the global total fertility rate had dropped to fewer than 2.5 children per woman. Meanwhile, global life expectancy rose from 64.6 years in the early 1990s to 72.6 years in 2019.

As a result, the structure of societies is expected to undergo a dramatic transformation-with a growing proportion of elderly people, a shrinking share of youth, and a potentially smaller workforce.

In addition, the world is experiencing a high degree of urbanization and accelerating migration flows. The year 2007 marked the first time that the urban population surpassed the rural population. By 2050, approximately 66 percent of the world's population is expected to live in cities.

The report also addresses population trends in Armenia. It notes that Armenia's urban population is about 1.8 times larger than its rural population. As of January 1, 2025, Armenia’s permanent population was approximately 3 million 75 thousand people- an increase of around 84,000 compared to 2024 (Statistical Committee).

According to the medium forecast scenario, assuming other factors remain constant, Armenia’s population is projected to decline to about 2 million 373 thousand people by 2050.

In Armenia, similar changes are expected. The share of the elderly population is projected to rise significantly. Between 2018 and 2023, the average number of children born per woman in Armenia increased slightly, reaching 1.9. However, more than 60% of households in Armenia do not have children. About 16% have two children, 15% have one child, and 7% have three or more children, according to the Statistical Committee.

At the same time, couples in Armenia most often express a desire to have three children (UNFPA).

“Therefore, it is necessary to eliminate economic (financial resources, housing, employment), social, health, institutional, and other barriers that prevent young people from having as many children as they would like,” the bulletin emphasizes.

World Population Day is celebrated annually on 11 July to focus attention on the urgency and importance of population issues. 

The Day was established by the then-Governing Council of the UN Development Programme (UNDP) in 1989, an outgrowth of the interest generated by the Day of Five Billion, which was observed on 11 July 1987. By resolution 45/216 of December 1990, the UN General Assembly (UNGA) decided to continue observing World Population Day to enhance awareness of population issues, including their relations to the environment and development. 

The Day was first marked on 11 July 1990 in more than 90 countries.

Published by Armenpress, original at https://armenpress.am/en/article/1224635